🔗 Share this article

Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.