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A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."